Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): More to come.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

• 

  And the Predicted Nominees Are

  Rank	Performer & Film
  1	“Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
  2	“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
  3	“The Brutalist” (A24) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
  4	“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof
  5	“September 5” (Paramount Pictures) — Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum

  Oscars: Best Original Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

• 

  Next in Line

  Rank	Performer & Film
  6	“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
  7	“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia
  8	“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
  9	“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot
  10	“The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat

  Oscars: Best Original Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

• 

  Other Contenders

  Rank	Performer & Film
  11	“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen
  12	“Babygirl” (A24) — Halina Reijn
  13	“Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes
  14	“His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs
  15	“Dìdi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang
  16	“Maria” (Netflix) — Steven Knight
  17	“Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) — Jonathan Abrams
  18	“My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM) — Megan Park
  19	“Civil War” (A24) — Alex Garland
  20	“We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig

  Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

• Eligible Writers (Best Original Screenplay)

  

  ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

  • “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Payal Kapadia
  • “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
  • “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) — Gabriel Sherman
  • “Babygirl” (A24) — Halina Reijn
  • “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — Michael Gracey, Oliver Cole, Simon Gleeson
  • “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Nathan Silver, C. Mason Wells
  • “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols
  • “Bird” (Mubi) — Andrea Arnold
  • “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM) — Zoë Kravitz, E.T. Feigenbaum
  • “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — Steve McQueen
  • “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Terence Winter, Frank E. Flowers, Zach Baylin, Reinaldo Marcus Green
  • “The Brutalist” (A24) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
  • “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — Justin Kuritzkes
  • “Civil War” (A24) — Alex Garland
  • “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Christy Hall
  • “The Deliverance” (Netflix) — David Coggeshall, Elijah Bynum
  • “A Different Man” (A24) — Aaron Schimberg
  • “Dìdi” (Focus Features) — Sean Wang
  • “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard **
  • “The End” (Neon) — Joshua Oppenheimer, Rasmus Heisterberg
  • “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow) — Ryusuke Hamaguchi
  • “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) — Erica Tremblay, Miciana Alise
  • “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) — Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža
  • “Fresh Kills” (Quiver) — Jennifer Esposito
  • “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
  • “Heretic” (A24) — Scott Beck, Bryan Woods
  • “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — Azazel Jacobs
  • “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Baird, Kevin Costner, Mark Kasdan
  • “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — Jane Schoenbrun
  • “IF” (Paramount Pictures) — John Krasinski
  • “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) — Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio
  • “Janet Planet” (A24) — Annie Baker
  • “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
  • “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Rich Peppiatt, Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin, JJ Ó Dochartaigh
  • “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — Kate Gersten
  • “Longlegs” (Neon) — Osgood Perkins
  • “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24) — Rose Glass, Weronika Tofilska
  • “Maria” (Netflix) — Steven Knight
  • “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) — Francis Ford Coppola
  • “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) — Adam Elliot
  • “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) — Edward Burns **
  • “Misericordia” (Janus Films) — Alain Guiraudie **
  • “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures) — Dev Patel, Paul Angunawela, John Collee
  • “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM) — Megan Park
  • “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24) — Rungano Nyoni
  • “Parthenope” (A24) — Paolo Sorrentino
  • “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
  • “Rumours” (Bleecker Street) — Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson
  • “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) — David Zellner
  • “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
  • “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) — Mohammad Rasoulof
  • “Shirley” (Netflix) — John Ridley
  • “Spellbound” (Netflix) — Lauren Hynek, Elizabeth Martin, Julia Miranda
  • “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder) — Robert Morgan, Robin King
  • “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat
  • “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) — Josh Margolin
  • “Tuesday” (A24) — Daina O. Pusić
  • “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Minhal Baig
  • “We Live in Time” (A24) — Nick Payne
  • “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) — Ian MacAllister McDonald

• More Information (Oscars: Best Original Screenplay)

  

  2024 category winner: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Arthur Harari & Justine Triet

  2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

  • Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
  • General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
  • Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
  • Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
  • Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
  • Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
  • Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
  • Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
  • Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
  • Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
  • Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
  • Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
  • Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
  • Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
  • 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

  Oscars Prediction Categories

  2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

  About the Academy Awards

  The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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